A lot of live service games have closed lately, games meant to be developed perpetually in a bid to find a golden cash cow. Less games have succeeded at this than have though, and it takes us to where we are today.
You can cite Concord, XDefiant or SEGA killing HYENAS, their most expensive game to date, before even launching it. The failure of these games to grab hold in the intended way is indisputable. What is missing from consideration is where games are today.
Mat Piscatella, Executive Director and Industry Analyst at Circana (NPD), noted on Bluesky how players are “[…] dumping all their time into Fortnite, Minecraft, Call of Duty, Roblox, and Grand Theft Auto.” [src] Further, when asked in the replies if these forever-games have drained audiences elsewhere, Piscatella confirms that “[…] a high share of hours have been shifting to these games over time.”
People love to finger wag, it is just a fun thing to do. Especially when we get to wag at someone who we believe is trying to ruin something we enjoy. Is it really what is happening though? If you are reading this, you probably aren’t in the majority-type of players. Those people are still eating up the latest Call of Duty and hyped for the next DLC.
To an extent, as an MMORPG player, I helped give birth to live service games. I would guess my most played game for the last ten years has probably been The Elder Scrolls Online. This is even considering the scathing things I have said about it here, like how garbage lootboxes are. Still, yesterday I updated the game after a few months away, all so I could claim a special free item.
I think we will see more gamers turning to older titles as the spectrum of modern AAA titles narrows. It is tempting to herald indie as the future, but they are struggling as well. Even large unexpected hits like Baldur’s Gate 3 absorb thousands of hours from individuals who aren’t buying as many other games.
So what is the point of this post? It is more of a response to these types of comments that I see regularly.
These studios aren’t going to stop trying to swing for the fences, because I believe they see live service as the way to survive. Get big or get consolidated, that is my guess for what is next. Me? I am happy to replay my old games, but yes, even a little ESO.